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Kate Stikhinа|InstaForex TV Director
Hello! This week is going to be rather interesting and rich with significant macroeconomic events. Be on top of the news highlights with our weekly digest.








What to expect on Forex this week?



Monday | 22 February




The last week of February will not be as eventful as it could have been. Still, market participants can focus on particular reports set for release during the week. On Monday, the macroeconomic calendar will be completely empty as usual. Thus, the first day of the week will be relatively calm.




Tuesday | 23 February




Tuesday is likely to become the busiest day of the week. It will kick off with the publication of New Zealand’s retail sales data. The index is expected to fall to 7.6% from 8.3%. A decrease in consumer confidence could contribute to a weaker New Zealand dollar. Meanwhile, the pound sterling will come under pressure due to an increase in UK unemployment to 5.2% from 5.0%. Thus, the UK economy is set to get worse. The final EU statistics on inflation will stir up investors’ interest on Tuesday. The report should confirm the end of the deflation period in the euro area and reflect a surge in consumer prices. The reading is expected to soar to 0.9% from -0.3%. This will lead to the strengthening of the euro. However, its growth will be limited because the figures have already been included into the preliminary forecast.




Wednesday | 24 February





The only event to spark attention of market participants on Wednesday will be the Board meeting of New Zealand’s Reserve Bank. The regulator is unlikely to change its monetary policy. This means that investors will be focusing on the subsequent comments of the central bank and wait for hints about a possible loosening of the policy in the foreseeable future. Such a scenario is highly likely. Therefore, the kiwi may well be brought under pressure again.




Thursday | 25 February




On Thursday, the US will present its labor market report, which may reveal a plunge in jobless claims as well as an increase in durable goods orders. In fact, the latter expected to surge by 1.2%. This means that consumer confidence will continue rising. Consequently, it will be beneficial for the entire US economy. Therefore, it is an extremely positive factor. On top of that, the US will publish its second estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter. The reading should come in line with the first forecast. Anyway, the US economy is projected to accelerate to -2.5% from -2.8%. Nevertheless, the market is unlikely to react to such positive news.




Friday | 26 February





On Friday, Japan will deliver its statistics on retail sales, which are forecast to rise to -0.1% from -0.3%. Even such an insignificant increase in consumer confidence may well support the Japanese national currency. This is going to be the last important report published during the week since no more crucial macroeconomic data is set to be released within the day.








Read and learn


Watch and earn









As for the technical analysis, traders should pay attention to the following price levels:






EURUSD

Resistance:
1,2150**; 1,2200; 1,2350**; 1,2550; 1,2825.


Support:
1,2000***;1,1900**; 1,1810*; 1,1650*; 1,1500.

GBPUSD

Resistance:
1,4000***; 1,4350**; 1,4550; 1,4700; 1,5000***.


Support:
1,3750**; 1,3650*; 1,3560*; 1,3450*; 1,3300*; 1,3000***; 1,2860.

USDJPY

Resistance:
106,50*; 108,00**; 109,80**.


Support:
104,50; 102,60; 101,00**; 100,00***.

NZDUSD

Resistance:
0,7320**; 0,7400**; 0,7550.


Support:
0,7230*; 0,7000***; 0,6900; 0,6750**; 0,6550*.

* Periodic level** Level of a trading range*** Psychological level












Global economy may face new difficulties
It is too early to estimate the real damage caused by the coronavirus outbreak. However, some experts are sure that the world will face the main problems some time later. According to the forecasts provided by the United Nations, the global economy will be confronted with difficulties at the beginning of this year.
The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said that the global trade would fall again. “For the first quarter of 2021, UNCTAD projects a 1.5% decline in trade in goods versus the previous quarter, and a 7% drop in trade in services”. The US, China, and the EU will suffer more than other countries. Together these three giants account for about 63% of global imports and 64% of global exports. They are the largest purchasers for most emerging markets. That is why the losses of the US, the EU, and China will have a significant impact on developing countries.
The report also reads that problems in the services sector have a dominant influence on the global economy. Besides, experts note that the services sector will hardly recover in the near future. At the same time, the global trade is gradually getting back on track. In general, disruptions in the world production and supply chains may prevent the global economy from a rapid revival.
UN economists suppose that tourism is the most damaged sphere. At the beginning of 2021, most countries introduced new restrictive measures. At the same time, in China and India, exports of services showed the smallest decline.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade

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Be on top of the forex market events with FX.co,Kate Stikhina, InstaForex TV Director








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