- Correcting Gains
- 2019-05-16 13:11:59 (GMT)
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May 16, 2019
Feeling The Pull of Gravity
BTC: Price: $7,900 | MCAP: $139.94 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $33.47 billion
Short-term trend: Correction likely
Bitcoin is flashing red this Thursday morning and could see a deeper price pullback in the next few days, as the cryptocurrency's inability to hold onto fresh 10-month highs hit in Asian trading hours is telling a tale of buyer exhaustion.
Bitcoin printed a 10-month high of $8,390 earlier today only to fall back quickly below $8,000, strengthening the bearish divergence of the 4-hour chart relative strength index (RSI). The daily RSI is also teasing bearish divergence.
As a result, the double top neckline support of $7,619, as seen in the 4-hour chart, could come into play in the next 24 hours. A break lower would open the doors to sub-$7,000 levels (target as per the measured height method).
The case for a pullback in the next day or two would weaken if the price rises back above $8,300. Although, with the RSI well above 70.00, the bulls may have a tough time forcing sustainable rally to next key resistance at $8,500 (July 2018 high)
Long-term trend: Bullish
Bitcoin has found acceptance above the historically strong resistance of the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, validating the bearish-to-bullish trend change signaled by the violation of bearish lower highs pattern seen on April 2.
Also, supporting the longer run bullish case is the two-week MACD histogram's positive turn, the first since February 2018. Further, the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) is holding well above the key resistance range of 53.00–55.00.
The longer run bullish outlook would be neutralized if the price finds acceptance below the 200-day MA, currently at $4,482.
All Green On Higher Highs
XEM: Price: $0.10 | MCAP: $904.8 million | 24-Hr Volume: $35.9 million
Short-term trend: Pullback
XEM joins a number of cryptocurrencies exceeding 40 percent gains over a 24-hour period, now facing a slight pullback from an incredible breakout to new highs not seen since Nov. 13, 2018 at $0.12.
Given its most recent rally and retracement on today's current candle, further drawdown could be on the cards for XEM with a warning from a long-tail wick topside. If it does manage a breakdown, consider the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement line to be up for grabs.
Long-term trend: Bullish
Scaling above previous highs on larger timeframes such as the daily or weekly charts are always a good sign during an uptrend and XEM has not disappointed.
Despite a deep drawdown beginning April 11 and ending May 9, XEM has successfully beaten the previous highs for an opportunity for continuation in its rally given overall market momentum is picking up in greater speed.
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Down But Not Out
AOA: Price: $0.02 | MCAP: $139.06 million | 24-Hr Volume: $1.5 million
Short-term trend: Pullback
One of the few crypto in the red today, Aurora is down 1 percent over 24-hours but is not yet out contention for continuation on from its parabolic recovery from all time lows at $0.00750 last seen on Feb. 18, 2019.
Prices have remained bullish above the 55-period exponential moving average and an attempt to resume the primary bullish trend continues to play out with a series of peak higher highs and peak higher lows.
Long-term trend: Neutral-bull potential
Strong resistance between $0.002750 and $0.002800 still presents a considerable wall against further upside action unless its broken on the back of strong weekly volume followed by only a minor retracement in its price to prove whose firmly in control.
The Chaikin Money Flow also shows a slight uptick in buying pressure which demonstrates a willingness by traders to test higher in the coming days should prices hold at current levels.
@leb_crypto put out a bullish view on Litecoin three days ago, stating the cryptocurrency could soon rally to $100.
As forecasted, the price of single litecoin
jumped well above $100 to hit 11-month highs near $107 in Asian trading hours today.
The bullish move has stalled over the last few hours with the price falling back to $95.00. The path of least resistance, however, remains to the higher side, as litecoin’s mining reward halving is now less than 90 days away.
On Aug. 6, 2019, the reward for mining on litecoin’s blockchain will drop from current 25 coins per block mined to 12.5 coins. The process aimed at curbing inflation is repeated every four years. More importantly, markets tend to price in the supply altering event often several months in advance.
For instance, the price of litecoin had rallied sharply from $1,12 to $8.72 in seven months leading up to its first reward halving, which took place on August 25, 2016.
Notably, history seems to be repeating itself. LTC bottomed out at lows near $22 in December i.e. eight months before the reward halving and doubled in value in the first three months of 2019.
So, price pullbacks in the near term, if any, will likely end up fueling stronger price rallies toward $155, which is the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the sell-of from December 2017 highs to December 2018 lows.
Why Halving Matters?
A third of all etherum's ether (ETH) token is owned by just 376 "whales", according to blockchain analysis firm Chainanalysis.
That data is enough to renew concerns about price manipulation.
Chainanalysis study, however, reveals that despite controlling one third of the circulating supply, the whales have little impact on the price of ETH, although their activity does boost volatility, especially during the sell-offs.
Also, a majority of whales are not active traders and account for only 5-18 percent of transaction volume.
To conclude, whales may not be influencing price in a big way as is widely believed. However, 376 individuals holding 33 percent of all ether does put a question mark on ethereum's goal of decentralization.
Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.
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